Seoul’s population to drop by 1.5 million over next 30 years: study

A carer holds a newborn baby at a post-natal center in Seoul, Feb. 28. Yonhap

Seoul’s population is estimated to fall by nearly 1.5 million people over the next 30 years, suffering the biggest decline among Korea’s 17 special cities, metropolitan areas and provinces, as the country’s demographic crisis worsens, data showed, Tuesday.In its forecast on population in major cities and provinces from 2022 to 2052, Statistics Korea said all municipalities excluding Gyeonggi Province and Sejong are expected to struggle with population decreases over the cited period.The projected decrease in the number of residents is estimated to be 1.49 million in Seoul, 850,000 in Busan, 690,000 in South Gyeongsang Province, 580,000 in Daegu, 460,000 in North Gyeongsang Province, and 330,000 in North Jeolla Province.The estimate was based on three factors – the number of births and deaths plus net inflow of new residents in each surveyed area.

Whether the high cost of living caused by centralization in Seoul, such as housing prices, affects the sharper population decline in the capital compared to the rest of the country was not determined in this study, Statistics Korea explained.It went on to say the population decrease will reach 290,000 each in Ulsan and Gwangju, 280,000 in South Jeolla Province, 220,000 in Daejeon, 90,000 in Gangwon Province, 80,000 in North Chungcheong Province, 30,000 on Jeju Island and 10,000 in Incheon.The population is forecast to remain unchanged in South Chungcheong Province, while it is forecast to increase by 120,000 in Gyeonggi Province which surrounds Seoul and rise by 160,000 in Sejong.Busan and Ulsan ranked as the top two cities in terms of the forecasted resident decrease rate from 2022 to 2052. Busan is expected to experience a population decline of 25.8 percent, closely followed by Ulsan with a projected decrease of 25.7 percent.

Concerning monthly births, the number fell below the 20,000 level nationwide for the first time in any February this year.Sejong was the only region in Korea where the number of births exceeded that of deaths in 2022 but the city is also expected to see more deaths than births beginning in 2045.Nevertheless, its population will manage to increase as it will continue to see a net inflow of people from other areas, the statistics agency noted.The number of people aged 14 and below is expected to fall from 5.95 million in 2022 to 3.61 million in 2052.Correspondingly, they made up 11.5 percent of the entire population in 2022 but will account for just 7.8 percent in 2052.In contrast, the number of those aged 65 and older is estimated to grow from 8.98 million in 2022 to 18.86 million in 2052.This age group is projected to make up 40.8 percent of 온라인카지노 the total population in 2052, up from 17.4 percent in 2022.

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